When Michael Rippon greeted John Mooney's last slow bouncer with an overhead slash over the long-on boundary to secure a dramatic tie in last week's ODI, the implication for the men in green was immediately clear. With 20 points in the World Cricket League Divison One, Ireland are unassailable at the top of the table, their place at the 2015 World Cup assured. For their opponents, however, the situation is somewhat murkier.

There is one more place available for automatic qualification, and four teams - the Netherlands, Afghanistan, Scotland - and just possibly the UAE - could still claim it; with the others joining the bottom three at the qualifying tournament in New Zealand next year to chase the final two spots. What follows is an attempt to discern which of the four is best placed, and to explore various possible eventualities and their implications for the competing sides.

In terms of points, the situation is reasonably straightforward. Scotland and the Netherlands are currently both on 15 points, with Afghanistan four points behind them on 11, and the UAE on 10. The Afghans and Emiratis, however, have four games in hand compared to two for the Netherlands and Scotland. Thus the first three teams could potentially finish the competition on 19 points, provided they win their remaining games, whilst the UAE could make a maximum of 18.

Here the Netherlands' advantage is already clear, given that they face last-placed Canada in Toronto for their final two games, whilst the Scots travel to Belfast to face Ireland. Although Ireland's qualification is already secure, the Irish camp have been swift to dismiss any suggestion that they would field less than a full strength team against the Scots, and insist they will be playing to win. Afghanistan will be fancied to win against both Namibia in Windhoek, and Kenya whom they will host in Sharjah in the final two games of the competition - especially given that it is fair to assume their opponents, who can no longer achieve automatic WC qualification, will be concentrating on their Intercontinental Cup Matches. Nevertheless, not to lose a single game in four is of course a tall order. For the UAE the calculation is grimmer still; they would not only need to win all their games, first against Canada and then Namibia, but would need each of the other three to lose or tie one or more games.

If second place is to be decided by points, the runner-up will simply be the team that drops the fewest points in their remaining games, with the UAE at a one point handicap. Here of course the weather may factor, as rained off matches will result in shared points. Afghanistan are scheduled to play their last four games in Windhoek at the driest point in the Namibian calendar, and at Sharjah, where they will be more at risk of sandstorms than rain. Conversely, neither Belfast nor Toronto are strangers to late summer downpours, and even with two reserve days and the possibility of resuming interrupted matches the following day, neither the Dutch nor the Scots can rule out the risk of losing potential points to the weather. The UAE are likewise at the mercy of the Canadian weather for two of their four games, and can ill afford to drop any points at all.

However, if any two (or conceivably more) teams finish on equal points in second place - by no means unlikely - net run rate would come into play.

This is where things get complicated.

As things stand the Netherlands have a clear advantage on NRR as well. The Dutch NRR currently stands at +0,345 after 12 games, the Scots are just barely positive on +0,025, while Afghanistan are in the red with -0,313 - in no small part due to a crushing defeat at the hands of the Dutch in Sharjah last year. The UAE are similarly afflicted, their net run rate being -0,249. These figures will of course change over the course of the coming matches, but assuming equal points Scotland, Afghanistan and the UAE still have a fair bit of catching up to do. The Afghans trail the Dutch by about twice as much as the Scots, the UAE not doing much better, but both have twice as many games to catch up.

Net run rate is calculated by dividing total runs scored by overs faced over the course of the competition, and subtracting the equivalent aggregate for the team's opponents. Where a team is bowled out, they are treated as if they have faced their full allocation of overs. So in order to improve NRR, a team must aim to win games either by large margins if batting first, or quickly if chasing. Generally speaking (though not always) high scoring games affect NRR more than low. Somewhat controversially, the amount of wickets taken or lost, except where a team is bowled out, has no effect on the calculations. Thus a one wicket win with ten overs to spare is more advantageous than a nine wicket win with five overs remaining.

The Dutch have faced a total of 522.4 overs thus far, making 2441 runs; they have bowled 578.3 and conceded 2502, giving their current NRR of 0,345. To maintain that rate they will need to win their games in Toronto by an average of approximately 20 runs or with about 4 overs to spare, whilst winning by more than 20 runs or within 45 overs would push their NRR still higher. Two last ball or single run victories would drop their NRR to somewhere between 0,275 and 0,315 with higher scoring games better than low, whilst of course defeats would have a still more profound effect on NRR, in addition to lost points.

Scotland have faced a total of 485.5 overs in the competition and made 2189 runs; bowled 477.1 and conceded 2138, giving their current NRR of 0,025. Almost any aggregate win margin over the course of their two games in Ireland would improve the Scots' NRR, but in order to equal the Netherlands' current rate they would have to win by enormous margins, nearly 100 runs or inside 30 overs for both games, depending on the total number of runs scored. The Netherlands' NRR may yet come down, but in order to beat the Dutch in such a fashion the Scots would have to pull off two emphatic upsets. Of course by the time Scotland face Ireland, the Netherlands will have played their last game, so Scotland will at least know whether they need to chase down the Dutch or just stay ahead of the Afghans.

Afghanistan have made 1678 runs from their 390 overs so far, and conceded 1797 from the 389,2 that they have bowled. In terms of net run rate they are currently in dire straights, on -0,313. Despite having four matches to make up the difference, Afghanistan would need to win each of their games by a margin of at least 30 runs or with 40-odd balls to spare just to attain a net positive run rate, slightly more to catch up to Scotland's current rate. To match the Netherlands' current NRR they would have to win each game by a mean of approximately 80 runs or with about 100 balls remaining. To put this in perspective, only Ireland have won a game by more than 70 runs so far in the competition, and only the Dutch have won with more than 20 overs to spare -against Afghanistan. On the face of it, it seems that whilst the Afghans might well win out over the Scots even if Ireland lose twice, they will probably still have to rely on the Dutch dropping points in Toronto too. That said, a single titanic victory could shift the odds back towards something more reasonable, and neither Namibia nor Kenya have much to play for at this stage of the competition.

The UAE finishing on the same points as another team in second place is unlikely in that implies at least one tie or abandoned game for their opponents, but otherwise their NRR position is slightly better than that of Afghanistan, having made 1829 from 479,2 and conceded 1809 from 445, with four games in hand. Their exact requirements are left as an exercise for the reader.

So what conclusions can be drawn from this arithmetic mess? Essentially, the Netherlands can expect to be safe on net run rate calculations barring a miracle for the UAE or a herculean effort by the Afghans or the Scots, but if the latter two finish on equal points in second, it will be a very near run thing. The UAE need a remarkable series of unlikely outcomes, and Scotland face a significant disadvantage in their Irish opponents, whilst Afghanistan have the advantage of playing last, and thus will know exactly what they need to achieve. The Netherlands remain favourites, but dropped points against Canada will swiftly change the equation.

Whatever happens, Rippon's last ball six has certainly set up a fascinating couple of months for associate cricket.

• Canada v United Arab Emirates at King City Aug 6, 2013
• Canada v United Arab Emirates at King City Aug 8, 2013
• Namibia v Afghanistan at Windhoek - Aug 9, 2013
• Namibia v Afghanistan at Windhoek - Aug 11, 2013
• Canada v Netherlands at Maple Leaf North-West Ground, Toronto - Aug 27, 2013
• Canada v Netherlands at Maple Leaf North-West Ground, Toronto - Aug 29, 2013
• Ireland v Scotland at Stormont - Sep 6, 2013
• Ireland v Scotland at Stormont - Sep 8, 2013
• UAE v Namibia at Sharjah - Sep-Oct 2013
• UAE v Namibia at Sharjah - Sep-Oct 2013
• Afghanistan v Kenya at Sharjah - Sep-Oct 2013
• Afghanistan v Kenya at Sharjah - Sep-Oct 2013

This article has been amended to reflect the continued contention of the UAE.

DISCLAIMER: CricketEurope takes no responsibility for the accuracy of this information.

DISCLAIMER: Seriously. It is strongly recommended that you run the numbers yourself, especially if you are about to time a run-chase on the basis of my ability to use Excel. The spreadsheet used to calculate these figures is available on request.