It was all pretty predictable for most of the group phase, but suddenly the World Twenty20 qualifier exploded into life on the final day, with the USA's shock seven-wicket victory over Scotland almost propelling Kenya into the play-offs at the Scots' expense.

It was a remarkable achievement by the Americans, whose only previous win had been against Oman, the sole team to go through the group matches without a single victory, and it recalled their win against the same opponents two years ago, which did indeed help to prevent Scotland from progressing further.

But it was a rare coup by one of the less fancied sides, if we exclude the performances of the Namibians, whose position is in some respects anomalous. By going through the first phase unbeaten in Group B, Namibia confirmed that they are one of the top Associate sides, and it should surprise no-one that they now play Afghanistan for the first of the two qualifying places on offer.

That aside, though, not only have victories by the sides who came through the regional qualifiers over the six High Performance countries been almost as rare in this tournament as a Duckworth/Lewis result, but in many cases the difference in class between the sides has been pretty obvious.

There have, it is true, been a few exceptions: Papua New Guinea came within five runs of victory against Canada on the second day; Italy almost pulled off an upset against Ireland; and later on the same day Bermuda took their match against the Netherlands right down to the wire.

That's not many of the 56 games, however, and one conclusion we can draw is that the truism that anything can happen in Twenty20 cricket is only true to a limited degree: well-prepared quality players enjoy a huge advantage in any form of the game, and that has been amply demonstrated here.

The tournament statistics give a qualified lie, moreover, to the view that it would be spin which would be the decisive factor on the slowish pitches of the UAE: it is true that scoring rates have sometimes slowed when the slower bowlers have been operating, but several of the most successful teams – Ireland and Namibia are obvious examples – have relied to a considerable degree on pace, and several of the quicker men are among the most successful bowlers, whether that is judged in terms of economy rates or wickets taken.

One reassuring feature of the group phase is that the high-profile players who were included in some of the sides have been less dominant than one might have expected (or feared). Papua New Guinea's Geraint Jones and Italy's Michael di Venuto have had comparatively quiet tournaments, and many of the top performers have been home-grown Associates players: Louis van der Westhuizen and Raymond van Schoor (Namibia), Mohammad Shahzad and Karim Sadiq (Afghanistan), Alex Obanda (Kenya) and Calum MacLeod (Scotland) with the bat, Boyd Rankin (Ireland), Shakti Gauchan (Nepal), Curt Stovell (Bermuda) and Majid Haq (Scotland) with the ball.

Undefeated through the group matches, Afghanistan and Namibia have undoubtedly earned their double chance of a place in Sri Lanka. Both won crucial matches, against the Netherlands and Ireland respectively, in the first two days, and Afghanistan in particular have looked untroubled thereafter.

The loss of Hamid Hassan before the tournament and of Shahpoor Zadran and Noor Ali Zadran during it has made less difference to the side than many thought, and with a powerful top six, a pace attack spearheaded by Dawlat Zadran, and a useful array of spinners, they go into the play-offs as clear favourites.

Namibia's top batsmen, too, have been in bruising form, and they have posted three of the tournament's top seven scores. They have also hit more boundaries than anyone else, just ahead of Afghanistan, Scotland, Ireland and Kenya, with Van der Westhuizen smashing 15 of their 36 sixes.

It is doubtful, however, whether their bowling is quite up to the standard of Afghanistan, or indeed of some of the other sides they may face should they lose to the Afghans in the first of the tournament's several finals on Thursday afternoon.

Of the four remaining teams, Ireland have the best credentials, and will be reasonably confident of once again qualifying for the main event. To do that, they will have to beat Canada on Thursday, the winner between the Netherlands and Scotland the following day, and then either Namibia or Afghanistan on Saturday.

In William Porterfield, Paul Stirling, Ed Joyce, Gary Wilson and Kevin O'Brien they have a seasoned top five who can be expected to come into their own in the tough matches ahead, while the new-ball attack of Rankin and Trent Johnston, backed up by the seam of Kevin O'Brien and the spin of George Dockrell and Stirling, is as strong as any in the competition.

Finishing second in the other group, the Netherlands only really began to fire towards the end of the group phase, and they will be hoping to maintain their best form through a demanding series of play-offs.

The opening partnership of Michael Swart and Stephan Myburgh has been crucial in posting testing totals and Tom Cooper has been looking increasingly comfortable as the tournament has progressed, but players like Alexei Kervezee and Wesley Barresi will need to weigh in more significantly against the toughest opposition.

The injury to Timm van der Gugten has deprived the attack of its main strike bowler, but Mudassar Bukhari has done well throughout, and the off-spin of Swart and Cooper has been a key factor in keeping the runs down.

Scotland may have come within a delivery or two of going out of the tournament in Group B's extraordinary climax, but they are good enough to cause their opponents problems in the concluding phase.

In Calum MacLeod they had one of the early batting stars of the competition, but more consistency will be needed from the likes of Kyle Coetzer, Richie Berrington, Preston Mommsen, Fraser Watts and Jan Stander if they are to go all the way, while the bowling – Majid Haq apart – has not been quite up to the standard of their play-off rivals.

Canada, too, had to survive a scare or two on their way to the play-offs, although the way in which they bowled and fielded in their final game to resist the challenge of Nepal was impressive enough.

On the whole, though, their performances have been workmanlike rather than scintillating, and their boundary count is one of the lowest of all sixteen teams. Only Ravindu Gunasekera has been making runs, and although they have a potential matchwinner in legspinner Junaid Siddiqui it will come as a surprise if they progress much further.

One piece of late news reflects the realities of modern cricket: the ICC announced on Tuesday that the venues for the two crossover semi-finals would be switched, with Ireland and Canada moving into the Dubai International Stadium to play in front of the television cameras, while the Netherlands and Scotland are relegated to the Global Cricket Academy.

No reason was given for the change, but a cynical mind might conclude that the cricket is playing second fiddle to the TV schedules. Sad, but probably inevitable in the world we live in.