IN THE end it should be all very simple. If Ireland beat ECB England at The Lawn today (10.30) and Holland get their tournament back on the rails with victory over Scotland, then the hosts will win the European Championship for the second time. However, if the Scots inflict more pain on the World Cup finalists in their game at Stormont and Ireland win then the Scots will, almost certainly, claim the trophy on nett run rate with the top three sides level on four wins each.
The third scenario is the simplest of the lot; a fifth successive win for ECB England will give them the European Championship for the first time and, that is the most likely outcome after England's latest convincing victory yesterday.
In their delayed game against Denmark at Limavady, the only unbeaten side in the competition hammered the only First Divison team without a win, by 10 wickets, captain Steve Foster and Quentin Hughes both scoring half centuries as they knocked off the 116 runs required for victory in 38 overs.
The fact that they did not lose a wicket ensured they go into the final round of games with the best nett run rate but they will be confident of not having to rely on that tomorrow. They came into the tournament with a confident side and today they will try and prove they are the best team. Hughes' unbeaten 51 yesterday gave him an average of 107 for the tournament and they have two more in the top five of the batting averages, Steven Chapman and Foster, but it is their bowling which has been even more dominant this week.
They have no fewer than four in the top six of the averages, with opening bowler Marcus Sharp, in second place, followed by Foster, Ajaz Akhtar and Chapman, their slow left armer. Ireland have already exceeded many people's expectations this week with their batting in three out of four games excelling. They are, admittedly with the advantage of batting first every match, the highest scoring team in the tournament and, even with their aberration against the Scots at Lisburn on Sunday, when they bowled out for 103, they have still totalled more than 800 runs at a run rate of 4.4 an over. They are likely to need more than 220 today to see off their opponents but considering that Jason Molins has yet to find his best form and Dom Joyce and Peter Davy are each due a big score, there is certainly the manpower there to give the English their toughest game since that crazy finale against the Scots in the opening match.
ECB England had no right to win that game, but to take six wickets in the final two overs underlines the never-say-die of the team and Ireland will have to match it today.
The confidence of bowlers Gary Neely - the leading wicket-taker in the First Division with 10 wickets at 11.5 - and Paul Mooney should be sky-high after their opening burst on Tuesday reduced Holland to 16 for five and it looks as if they will have Adrian McCoubrey to lead the attack today, National Coach Adrian Birrell "expecting him to play" in this injury-plagued season.
Richard McDaid, after a couple of ineffective matches as his replacement, will give way and the other place will be between Conor Armstrong and Jordan McGonigle, the almost forgotten Donemana slow left armer, who has yet to play in the tournament.
Although the team will not be announced until this morning, after a look at the pitch, McGonigle's chances of a game were boosted by a calf injury to Andrew White. He took the full force of a throw in from a Dutch fielder during his innings at Eglinton and the calf "seized up" that night. Yesterday it was badly bruised but he is batting with such confidence at the moment - he is Ireland's leading run scorer and averaging almost 37 this week - that as long as he can run between the wicket he is certain to play. The running by all the batsmen was particular impressive on Tuesday and, as the coach said afterwards: "Run-outs are always likely while they're learning (to improve it)."
He also singled out the fielding - the best yet under his command - and admitted it was "better than I thought". Today, though, is the crunch test for this young, still emerging squad, and if they can come close to a much more experienced outfit then, even without the trophy, it will have been a very successful tournament.
The Second Division is sure to be decided today, without the need for nett run rate because only a maximum of two teams can be level after the action at Shaw's Bridge and Greenisland. Portugal are the one team who has the destination of the trophy in their own hands. If they beat Germany then they will be the champions no matter what else happens.
However, if Germany wins the game they can only finish top if Israel beat Gibraltar because Gibraltar have already beaten the Germans and will win the title for the second successive tournament if the two teams finish level on eight points.